Trailing the temporary lockdowns is the disruption to the build programmes. Changes to the build programme have a massive impact contractually and cost- and capacity-wise for both ship owners and shipyards.

Shipyards need to define the critical uncertainties and develop plausible scenarios in order to identify the impacts and the responses to give for each one of them. However, many organisations tend to choose just one particular scenario and build their strategy, business plans and build programme around this. The uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 outbreak are far too extensive to rely on just one plan and direction. Scenario planning is not about choosing just one option for the future but rather about dealing with all of the possible outcomes to develop a strategy that will stand the test of all scenarios.

In addition to helping clients with planning of temporary lockdowns, OMT is assisting several clients – ship owners as well as shipyards – in the temporary lockdown period with developing new build programmes, striving to help clients make the best out of an otherwise bad situation. Together with the client, OMT is developing multiple scenarios and contingency plans that take into account the potential developments related to the COVID-19 situation (travel restrictions, distancing guidelines, logistics and supply chain of materials and equipment, etc.) and assess each scenario in terms of safety, cost, schedule and risk.

The end result is a solid strategy for how to deal with the lockdown during and after the COVID-19 situation. If you are aware of what could happen, you are more likely to deal successfully with what will happen.